What's Behind the PM's Significant Pivot on Closer Ties to the EU?

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The Prime Minister's particularly significant tilt on the Britain's after-Brexit ties to the EU on Saturday was designed to send a message to business, to EU officials, and to other European capitals, in addition to his own backbenchers.

A New Framework for Engagement

Closer after-Brexit commercial ties are now expected to be considered as through an yearly cycle of direct negotiations as opposed to solely at the current year's official assessment of the trade and cooperation agreement.

This served as the stated position to growing calls regarding a more ambitious post-Brexit overhaul that suggested re-entering the customs union.

Political Pressure

A number of backbenchers, union leaders and senior ministers have added their voices to suggestions formalised by legislative actions last year that culminated in a symbolic resolution.

"It is better prioritising the European single market instead of the customs union for our closer integration," Sir Keir Starmer said.

He gave a clear answer that returning to the customs union was not the current focus, as it goes against what he views as a key achievement of the past year: the signing of comprehensive trade pacts with the United States and the Indian subcontinent, with further in the pipeline in the Gulf region.

Prioritising the Internal Market

In place of the customs union, his focus is on developing a "stronger bond" with the single market, which would preclude ripping up those recently signed agreements elsewhere.

When the UK completed its departure from the EU in the start of 2021, the negotiated settlement stressed independence from EU standards instead of frictionless trade for UK businesses to the continent.

The ongoing new approach proposes realigning with EU standards in several sectors to promote the easier passage of trade: food and farm exports, electricity, and emissions trading.

Commercial Calls

A prominent industry organisation last month issued a detailed set of further requests in different fields to aid exporters deal with administrative barriers that has hit the goods trade.

Its member poll found that a large proportion of business members believed that the UK-EU trade deal was impeding commercial success.

A host of further domains could, feasibly, see a comparable strategy – convergence with single market rules – in as a trade-off for minimising post-Brexit barriers across production, in automotive, industrial chemicals, or for example in arrangements for VAT.

European Response

EU governments were underwhelmed by the limited scope in the previous recalibration, particularly the British rejection of suggestions advanced by some commentators regarding the effective return of British goods to the internal market.

The precise arrangements on energy cooperation and agri-food rules is yet to be settled. A proposal for UK defence firms to be participate in a €150bn security initiative has hit a snag over the cost of the contribution, after reservations from Paris. Another nation has joined the initiative.

Broader Landscape

The UK has reached an agreement to rejoin a academic exchange programme and to continue talks on a young workers initiative. This has paved the way for ongoing dialogue.

Observers suggest that the recent publication of a American national security strategy has altered the context on UK European policy.

The document said that the US would "encourage pushback" to continental trends and praised the "growing influence" of nationalist groups.

Among officials, there is an acknowledgement that the global landscape has changed again.

Home Pressures

Domestically, the governing party also expects being challenged on European policy by one opposition party, but also a further party, which is campaigning in its stronghold regions in upcoming council elections.

The Prime Minister's weekend remarks are the product of a confluence of economics, electoral strategy and geopolitics as the UK starts a year that will commemorate the 10th anniversary of the historic Brexit referendum.

Wendy Barry
Wendy Barry

A tech enthusiast and business strategist with over a decade of experience in digital transformation and startup consulting.