A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
